These pages are part of an Assessment for ‘Configuring the World’ course by Leiden University on Coursera Platform, September 2014.
This is an analysis of North African region with reference to Italy.
This is an interesting area of study, representing a geographical, cultural, religious and social border between “old”, christian and developed democracies of Europe and “young”, muslim and developing countries of North Africa that, after 2011 “arab spring” revolutions, are slowly building stronger democratical institutions from former military dictatorships.
From one side this region is an area of potential economic development and cooperation; on the other is a crossroads of immigration, future geo-political and demographic tensions.
Italy for its very peculiar geographic position in the Mediterrean Sea is a natural bridge between African and European continents and should play a very important role during next decades to manage interactions between these two worlds.
North-African countries considered in this analisys are Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Lybia and Egypt. They are all arab and muslim countries with homogenous culture but different colonial pasts: Morocco was a spanish colony, Algeria and Tunisia french colonies, Lybia was italian and Egypt a British protectorate.
Sudan has been aggregated to the region in this analysis even if belonging geographically to the Subsaharian region, culturally and ethinically very different.
Finally Western Sahara (depicted in orange) is part of the region but will not be considered because lacking statistically valid data. It is officially a Morroccan protectorate, it is disputed by Polisario Front that declared the SADR – Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.. Officially it does not have yet the status of national state.
Population
Egypt has the largest population in the region, being 16th in the World with 82 millions of people, mainly concentrated along river Nile. Other countries in Saharian Africa have lower and similar population with exception of very desertic Lybia.
On the other side of Mediterranean Sea there is Italy, one of most populated between European countries.
GDP
Looking at GDP and Economy some differences emerge. Italy is the 9th World Economy after USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, UK and more recently Brasil and Russia.
There are not official data for Lybia in the CTW Database but other countries lag very much behind with Egypt and Algeria being around one tenth of Italian Economy and Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia even smaller.
GDP per Capita (PPP)
When we average on population and compensate for effect of price dynamics (PPP), the situation changes a lot for Italy that falls at 34th place in the world, while saharian countries are even more similar between each other and in average have a GDP per Capita (PPP) that is around one third of the italian.
Sudan instead is lagging further behind being one of poorest country in the World
It is very interesting to visualize how GDP per capita evolved during XX century. This is possible through very powerful GAPMINDER web site (http://www.gapminder.org).
It is possible to visualize how at the beginning of the century we had smaller relative differences between Italy and Saharian group of countries. At that time Italy was entering industrialization in the North of the country while its South was still very poor and underdeveloped.
It is only during last 50 years that Italian economy divergenced.
Human Development Index
Italy maintains a position of leadership ranking 25th in the world.
GAPFINDER picture shows saharian countries very much clustered while Sudan has a very poor score and it is confirmed as one of most difficult and troubled country in the world.
Summary
Another GAPFINDER simulation illustrates XX century evolution of this group of country: income per person (x) vs life expectancy (y) vs population (bubble)
At the beginning of the XIX century all countries are clustered at bottom corner of low income/low life expectancy. During first half of the XX century Italy improves dramatically life expectancy as a result of progress of social conditions, medicine and literacy. Distance in income per person is still relatively small. In the second half of the century an economical divergence occurs but just while in saharian countries life expectancy and general life conditions start to improve. Only Sudan remains well behind.
Even if today we are living a different historical period in different circumstances, we may expect Saharian Countries to follow and repeat the Italian trajectory of economical growth via democratical institutions and free market reforms. Potentially this is a great opportunity for Italy that may take advantage from its favorable geographical position in the Mediterranean See.
On the other hand, in absence of economic growth, the very unfavorable combination of higher life expectancy and low income per person may cause an unsustainable demographic pressure that inevitably will spill out on European Community and especially Italy that is its south natural frontier.
Economic Gobalization Index
In term of Economic Globalization there is not much difference between Italy (ranking only 49th) and Tunisia that leads the group of african country. This could be due to ineffective and slow italian burocracy that has limited recent foreign investments.
Italy has a higher score and Ranking when we look at Social and Political Globalization Indexes.
Trade
When we look at Trade as % of GDP we have a very different picture because of different relative sizes of each economy.
Foreign Direct Investments (Stock)
Being a member of G10 Italy has obviously a much higher level of FDI, eitheir inward and outward.
As we have already seen for Globalization Index, Saharian Countries have an FDI level generally lower than other developing areas of the world. Political instability and other social factors may be element of concern for foreign investors.
This may represent a very limiting factor for growth in the context of relentless global competition.
Foreign Direct Investments (Flow)
Same difference between Italy and Saharian Countries is evident when we analyse current flows.
In addition we may note a substancial difference for Italy between outward/inward investments ratio for current flows (3:1) versus historical stocks (less than 2:1).
This is a clear proof of current structural difficulties of Italian Economy after 2008 crisis. Italian companies are delocalizing assets and low-cost productions abroad much faster than the country is capable of actracting new foreign investments for high-values and advanced productions.
